The Myanmar crisis, triggered by a military coup in 2021, has descended the whole nation into chaos. The crisis needs urgent attention from regional and global influencers because of escalating violence, mass displacement and its effects on neighbouring counties.
How the Myanmar crisis started
The Myanmar crisis began on February 1, 2021, when the military (junta), known as Tatmadaw, carried out a coup, overthrowing the democratically elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi (NLD).
In the elections held in November 2020, the NLD won the election with a great victory. The military alleged widespread voter fraud without evidence and rejected the election’s result. In February 2021, the military detained Aung San Suu Kyi, President Win Myint, and other elected political leaders. They declared a state of emergency for one year, which was later extended. Min Aung Hlaing, Commander-in-chief, assumed power and claimed that to protect the constitution, the coup was necessary.
The coup triggered nationwide protests across Myanmar, demanding the restoration of democracy. Citizens launched the Civil Disobedience Movement, which involved strikes and demonstrations. The military response was violent, which led to the killing of thousands of protesters.
As the military (Tatmadaw) increased its violence against protests, opposition groups, including Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) and armed civilians, formed the People’s Defence Forces (PDFs) to fight back. These groups joined forces with the National Unity Government (NUG), formed by removed leaders to challenge the military’s rule.
Current situation in Myanmar
As of January 2025, Myanmar is still in a crisis after the military coup in February 2021. The country still faces ongoing conflict, political instability, and a worsening humanitarian situation.
The conflict has intensified significantly since October 2023, leading to increased internal displacement and refugee outflows to neighbouring countries. In January 2025, the Myanmar military and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) signed a ceasefire agreement, supported by China, to stop the fighting near the Myanmar-China border. The agreement aims to promote peace and stability in the region, and this agreement was effective from January 18, 2025
In Myanmar, in Rakhine State, Rohingya people faced severe difficulty. These people live in constant fear and lack basic needs resources like food and water. For millions of Rohingya, Bangladesh is home, which led Bangladesh to strengthen its borders and send back people who tried to cross over, which left many people in despair and led to a call for foreign assistance.
Myanmar’s situation remains critical with the ongoing armed conflict, humanitarian crisis and political instability. To relieve the suffering of the Myanmar people, international efforts continue to focus on establishing ceasefires, providing humanitarian aid and Directing negotiations.
Impact of Myanmar crisis on India
This conflict had damaging repercussions on Indian society. India’s northeast shares a border of over 1600km with Myanmar. These are:
i. China – Myanmar relations
Both China and Myanmar have harmonious connections. China acts as a supporting country for Myanmar and collaborates on major events and projects. However, China's supremacy over Myanmar can lead to dysfunctional effects on India and risk the security of northeast states, as Indo-Chinese relations are not stable.
ii. Economic impact:
The Arakan Army (AA) enforcement has resulted in the discharge of ongoing and upcoming projects such as India’s Kaladan multi-modal transit transport project and the Sittee project. This crisis has also resulted in a rupture in India's trade connections with southeastern countries.
iii. Migration
Around one lakh refugees have migrated to the eastern parts of India due to the crisis. This leads to the discomfort of the locals, overcrowding, lack of resources and security concerns, especially in cities like Manipur, Mizoram, and Delhi, where the government is facing problems in providing shelter to the refugees.
iv. Security risk
The security of India’s northeast states, especially the borderland shared between India and Myanmar, is threatened. The rule of the Arakan Army in Myanmar has led to substantial mismanagement in the country’s system following the rapture of previous treaties and policies. This instability has also increased human drug trafficking through border areas.
v. Island of Andaman Nicobar:
The island named COCO ISLANDS, located near the northeastern Bay of Bengal was bestowed to Myanmar in 1949. It is controversial as the news is that China will hold the authority on it and will use it for military purposes, which is definitely a threat to India and the security of the country’s future.
As a final point, the Myanmar crisis is not a solitary issue; its impact is across the borders, affecting regional stability and humanitarian issues. Collaborative efforts are essential to resolve the crisis and bring peace to the region again. The enforcement of the Arakan army over Myanmar has resulted in a disturbance in the economy of India as projects are discharged, illegal migration of refugees to India and human drug trafficking increased the risk to the security of the country with the Arakan army and the Chinese government, which is a direct jeopardy to the country. We pray for the nation of Myanmar and the people to prosper from this situation and unveil peace and prosperity.
Disclaimer: Kindly note that the views and opinions expressed are of the author(s), not Law Colloquy.
References
1. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/04/20/world/asia/myanmar-civil-war.html
2. https://apnews.com/article/un-myanmar-violence-rights-humanitarian-spillover-
conflict-10f1e90a092cdcf6898aa550bd78729b
3. https://youtu.be/JGNRUmwNog4?si=BLdD3hfaqoOKTMzK
4. https://www.ncesc.com/geographic-faq/which-island-india-gave-to-myanmar/
5. https://youtu.be/gkk74DUfB7g?si=B8IjKBhl6o7uykw8
